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In order to capture th regular trends apparent, we must acknowledge the mistakes of previous models and not alter them to “fit†the prediction.
The existing models do not contribute to the ability to predict, but they do give us the starting point to alter these models. The number of observations and the difference between this election's measures of the independent variables and previous measures must be taken into account in order to make an accurate prediction...
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The number of observations and the difference between this election's measures of the independent variables and previous measures must be taken into account in order to make an accurate prediction.
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Erikson And Welzien: Of Time And Presidential Election Forecasts
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