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Miscellaneous
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| Number of pages / Number of words: |
11 / 2933 |
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Reasons for dismal performance of exchange rate forecasting models include volatility of time-varying premiums, volatility of long run exchange rates, poor measurement of inflationary expectations and misspecification of money demand functions (Meese and Rogoff (1983)).
Forecast performance of exchange rate prediction models have been extensively studied...
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Goodman (1979) rated 23 commercial exchange rate forecasting services and found that technically oriented services were more accurate than economically oriented services, but Levich (1980) discovered that econometrically based services outperformed technically based services in the short run. Many studies have been successful in developing forecast models, which do better than the random walk model...
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