The success of the 747 along with the market research data suggests that there is a significant market for VLAs. From Airbusâs perspective, it is imperative that it has a presence in this space for two reasons: to disrupt Boeingâs monopoly and create competitive pressure and to exploit a very profitable segment of the market...
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While we believe this is very optimistic, we expect VLA sales to average atleast 40 planes/ year for the next 20 years. Our opinion is that Airbus needs to generate potential commitments of atleast 50% of its expected break-even sales ( we expect BE to be about 375 sales).
Our worst case scenario suggests annual sales of 32 planes vs 48 planes and this stretches B/E to 525 sales over 20 years...