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Models of banking crises (e.g., Demirguc-Kunt and Detrgiache) note that high rates of credit growth and large amounts of credit to the private sector are correlated with the probability of future crises. All these countries had high rates of credit growth (between 10-25% in 1996) and large shares of private sector credit to GDP (>40% in all cases)...
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All these countries had high rates of credit growth (between 10-25% in 1996) and large shares of private sector credit to GDP (>40% in all cases). In addition, the decline in foreign exchange reserves as the countries were forced to defend (or devalue) their currencies and over-valued exchange rates also increased the likelihood that a crisis would occur...
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THE FINANCIAL CRISES IN RUSSIA AND EAST ASIA
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