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| Topic: |
Science
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| Number of pages / Number of words: |
9 / 2406 |
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PERT uses the following equation to approximate the expected time of an activity: (Optimistic Time + 4(Most likely Time) + Pessimistic Time) / 6. In general, the most likely, pessimistic and optimistic times are estimated times that are guessed or based on past history (if this data exists). The probabilities used in the equations for standard deviation and expected times are the following: optimistic time = 1/6 (@ 16...
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The probabilities used in the equations for standard deviation and expected times are the following: optimistic time = 1/6 (@ 16.7%), pessimistic time = 1/6 (@ 16.7%), most likely time = 4/6 (@ 66.7%). Per use of the above equations in the beta distribution, different probabilities can not be used for the PERT calculation, however different probabilities should be considered because each activity will not necessarily follow the beta distribution...
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