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| Topic: |
Religion
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| Number of pages / Number of words: |
4 / 1057 |
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We are far better off following the advice of the people with the greatest experience and expertise in a give field instead of trusting our instincts. This is because we are relatively ignorant; the experts are relatively wise and their collective judgment is likely to be the most accurate evidence available as to what will work and what will not; and humans (like us) have a proven tendency to each be overconfident in their own judgment (see James Surowiecki, “The Wisdom of Crowdsâ€)...
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Again, this is what shady and incompetent investment promoters have intuited forever, and why our securities laws require a certain amount of “due diligence†of such promoters. This constrains their natural tendency to exaggerate while not having done the work required to know what real scientists say about their investment proposal, or worse yet, suppressing that knowledge because it contradicts what the “know†to be “trueâ€...
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Imagine that you were called in by the government to advice on how it should use macroeconomic policy to manage the cyclical fluctuations in the economy. What advice would you give and how would you justify the advice?
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